A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
